HOW AMERICA FUMBLED THE IRAN WAR (MAYBE)
The United States and Israel were at war with the Islamic regime of Iran.
It was one of the most effective military campaigns of our lifetimes. Donald Trump deserves full credit for doing something no other president had the courage to do. I hold this view very strongly, even though things have soured quite a bit since then.
The operation brought the entire regime to its knees. The people of Iran—who are very different from the people in charge—were full of hope. Hope that their 47-year nightmare of being ruled over by these religious lunatics might finally be over.
For Israel, the fall of this regime would have meant peace like they’ve never had before. The head of the snake—the one that funds terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—would finally be gone. The threat of being fired upon by thousands of ballistic missiles would be gone.
For America, getting rid of this regime would right a wrong they played a hand in creating 47 years ago. It would remove the possibility of one day having to face a nuclear-powered Islamic regime that could effectively end the United States’ ability to influence that region. A nuclear-powered regime that chants “Death to America” would be catastrophic.
This was, and still is, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to change the world forever. To bring real peace to the Middle East. To change the geopolitical landscape against terrorism, barbarism, and the forces that want to destroy the West.
Victory Was Within Reach
America should have stood firm alongside Israel and continued to degrade this regime until the conditions existed for the people to rise up and take their country back, just as Donald Trump promised. But that promise remains unfulfilled.
Unfortunately, where we stand today, it looks like America has all but surrendered to the Islamic regime—for no reason at all.
To add insult to injury, Israel is currently being restrained from finishing the job against Hezbollah, the regimes proxy based in Lebanon, that has been firing missiles and drones at Israeli communities since October 7th.
They are being restrained by America because the Islamic regime demands it.And how do they have the leverage to demand such a thing?
Because Donald Trump is so desperate to sign a “peace deal” that he seems willing to give them whatever they want.
Having said that, there is a giant BUT in all of this.
The situation is incredibly fluid and evolving constantly. At times, it looks like there’s a bigger plan at play. Other times, it looks like there is no plan at all. A single Trump tweet can completely change how you’re analysing the situation.
Right now, things look depressing. However, by the time this essay is published, the situation may have changed completely.
So how did we get here, and is there any hope?
The Shah's Fall Changed the Middle East
The most important thing to know about Iran is this:
The regime in power—the Islamic regime, as I will refer to them—does not represent the people. They are a brutal theocratic entity that has subjugated the Iranian people for 47 years. The people themselves view this regime as an occupying force. The people are Iran. Not the lunatics in charge.
Iran wasn’t always the way we know it today.
There was a time, under the Shah, when the country was rapidly modernising. In many ways, it looked and felt like other Western countries. Women were finally allowed to vote, study, and pursue careers. The country was Westernising in many different ways.
All you need to do is look at the pictures from that time. You will be shocked by just how different it was.
Of course, all of this came crumbling down with the fall of the Shah.
Leftists, communists, and Islamists came together in opposition to the monarchy. They call it the Red-Green Alliance.
There is an incredible amount of propaganda surrounding the Shah and his rule. So many lies. So many distortions. For 47 years, the Islamic regime has been poisoning the well of his memory. Luckily, some of that is beginning to be undone.
The fall of the Shah was one of the worst things to happen to the Middle East. Because the creature that took his place—Ruhollah Khomeini—not only undid all the progress that was being made, he also declared a religious war on the Western world.
One of the first things he did after taking power was execute thousands of people he viewed as ideological opponents. He also executed thousands of the leftists who had fallen for his rhetoric. He promptly stripped away the freedoms women had been given and began implementing the strictest form of Sharia law.
Millions fled.
This Regime Believes What It Says
The second most important thing you have to understand about Iran is the ideology of the Islamic regime.
They are Twelver Shia Islamists. They have an eschatological vision of the future—one that requires the world to descend into chaos before their hidden prophet is revealed. The “Little Satan” (Israel) and the “Big Satan” (America) must, at the very least, be destroyed.
However, what makes these people unique is that they believe they can help bring about this prophecy themselves. In other words, they don’t simply wait for chaos to arrive. They believe they can create it. Then, when their hidden prophet appears, a great global battle will follow—one from which they believe they will emerge victorious. After that, a global Islamic kingdom will be established on Earth.
Westerners might think this is insane. But the real question is: do they believe it? Because if they do, then it makes little difference what we think.
To answer that question, we have to look at how they act.
Inside Iran, they impose religious laws. They imprison, torture, and execute those who transgress. They are also the world’s largest state sponsor of terror. They fund death-cult-like terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The wealth of the country is not spent improving the lives of ordinary Iranians. It goes towards drones, ballistic missiles, and nuclear infrastructure.
Some of those missiles can already reach Europe.
At the same time, they have built nuclear facilities deep underground, where they can’t easily be reached.
Their plan was simple: build thousands and thousands of ballistic missiles. Build thousands of drones. Then, when the time is right, race towards acquiring nuclear weapons.
At that point, stopping them becomes almost impossible. The cost of doing so would simply be too great.
They would already possess the delivery systems needed to threaten almost anyone. And eventually, potentially, nuclear weapons. That is where the true danger begins. Because once they possess that capability, the entire world changes.
For the first time, nuclear weapons would be in the hands of actors who genuinely view themselves as participants in a divine struggle.
Yes, North Korea possess nuclear weapons, but they prefer isolation.
That is not true of the Islamic regime. They desire world domination.
And that should concern everyone.
Knowing how weak and soft many European leaders have become, a nuclear-powered Iran under this regime would bully the world and cause chaos on a scale we have never seen before.
Can you imagine them providing a nuclear warhead to one of their proxies?
Can you imagine them threatening Israel, Europe, or America whenever they fail to get their way?
Unlike with the Soviet Union, these lunatics don’t mind dying or sacrificing their people for this holy mission.
During the war, we got a little taste of what the world could look like if these lunatics are ever allowed to acquire truly devastating power.
The regime was attacked, and in retaliation, it launched ballistic missiles and drones at countries across the entire Middle East. The videos are truly shocking.
Missiles hitting Kuwait. Missiles and drones hitting Dubai. The fear. The chaos. The insanity.
In the future, that may be London, Berlin, or even New York. The world cannot afford such a thing.
A Nation Held Hostage
Now, for 47 years, the Iranian people have lived under a brutal regime of executions, imprisonment, and torture.
Despite what you often hear in the media, most Iranians do not support this regime. Only around 5 to 10 percent of the population actively supports it. Over the years, the people have repeatedly tried to rise up against their oppressors. And over the years, they have repeatedly been crushed.
The latest of these uprisings came in January. Millions took to the streets across the country, demanding freedom.
The protests began as a reaction to economic hardship, but they quickly evolved into something much bigger. The people began calling for the return of the Shah. More specifically, they began calling for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah.
You have to understand what that means. Calling his name in public is all but a death sentence. So imagine the desperation, the courage. Imagine how bad things must be for ordinary people to take that risk.
As always, the regime responded with violence. The protests were crushed. In the span of just a day or two, tens of thousands were killed. The lower estimate sits at around 40,000. Other estimates range as high as 80,000 to 100,000. It’s an insane number.
A few weeks later, America and Israel launched their devastating military campaign against the Islamic regime.
In the opening strikes, Israel eliminated much of the regime’s senior leadership, including Ali Khamenei, successor to Ruhollah Khomeini and Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.
He was every bit as fanatical as his predecessor.
Every bit as dangerous.
And every bit as responsible for the suffering of the Iranian people.
After his death, the celebrations among Iranians—both in the diaspora and inside Iran itself—were unlike anything I had ever seen.
Inside Iran, those celebrations had to be far more muted, for obvious reasons. But the hope was unmistakable. For the first time in a very long time, a free Iran felt possible.
My own video celebrating with Iranians here in Finland was even featured on the White House social media for a brief moment, by the way.
The military campaign continued for roughly 39 days before Trump declared a ceasefire.
America was targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure. Israel was targeting ballistic missile production, command structures, and the infrastructure of repression itself. The Basij, in particular—the regime’s street-level enforcers and thugs responsible for terrorising ordinary Iranians.
Israel clearly understood something that many Western leaders do not.
If you want people to rise up, you first have to weaken the machinery that will shoot them the moment they step outside their homes. You have to create the conditions for freedom. Otherwise, calls for revolution are little more than a death sentence. That is exactly what Israel appeared to be trying to do.
The Strait of Hormuz
The regime was on its back foot.
Its senior leadership had been decimated. Its military infrastructure was being degraded. It was beginning to look vulnerable.
So the regime reached for the strongest card it had left.
The Strait of Hormuz.
A narrow stretch of water through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s shipping passes. Oil. Food. Raw materials. A huge portion of global trade flows through this tiny corridor.
The regime effectively closed it.
Its navy had already been devastated, but it didn’t need much to create chaos. Small boats. Drones. Missiles. That’s all it takes to make shipping companies think twice about entering a war zone.
The result was predictable.
Oil prices began to rise. Markets became nervous. Uncertainty spread. And suddenly, the regime had leverage—seemingly. To America’s credit, it responded with something quite clever. Even during the ceasefire, America effectively blockaded the blockade.
Iranian oil shipments were forcefully restricted. Ships attempting to travel to Iran and load oil were stopped. Ships from Iran attempting to leave were stopped. At the same time, international shipping unrelated to Iran was still being facilitated through the straits with American military might.
The regime was losing billions. America was squeezing them.
Their oil pumps were in danger of getting backed up because they didn’t have many options of where to sell it. Apparently the process of unblocking backed up oil pipes is incredibly difficult once it happens.
The pressure was working. America was dominating in every way.
The Deal That Changed Everything
Then, out of nowhere, Trump started acting embarrassingly desperate for a deal.
Any deal.
A deal that would end the fighting.
Before long, a memorandum of understanding was signed between America and the Islamic regime.
From where I sit, it feels like a gigantic disaster. A self inflicted wound on epic proportions.
The agreement allows the regime to sell its oil again without sanctions (which wasn’t even allowed under the JCPOA). It opens a pathway for billions upon billions of dollars to flow back into its hands. It also attempts to restrain Israel—at the demand of the regime—from acting against Hezbollah, a terrorist group openly committed to the destruction of Israel.
The lead negotiator in all of this is JD Vance, who in my opinion is doing a horrendous job. He simply does not understand the Middle East.
At one point, he openly suggested that the regime wanted to “turn over a new leaf”.
You can’t make this stuff up.
Their entire reason for existing is hostility towards the West. It is not some misunderstanding. It is not some diplomatic dispute. It is the very foundation upon which the regime was built.
The blockade was lifted. The money started flowing again.
And just like that, the pressure that had brought the regime to its knees began to ease.
America went from having all the leverage to having very little leverage.
The goals of the war were straightforward:
Destroy Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons.
Destroy or severely limit its ballistic missile capabilities.
Force it to stop funding terrorist proxies.
Destroy its ability to threaten international shipping.
Create the conditions for the Iranian people to take their country back.
Of those objectives, only one appears to have been partially achieved.
Its navy was indeed destroyed.
Now, once again, the regime suffered enormous damage, and I believe America and Israel did a genuine service to the world in the short term.
However, if this regime is allowed to lie, manipulate, and negotiate its way out of the weakened position it finds itself in, we may find ourselves facing a much worse situation only a few years from now.
Peace—or a Historic Mistake?
The only real path to peace in the Middle East is the destruction of the Islamic regime and the freedom of the Iranian people. Everything else is temporary. Everything else merely delays the problem.
Now, I don’t yet know whether this war will ultimately be remembered as a victory or a failure. The situation is still unfolding. Perhaps there is a bigger strategy at work. Perhaps there are things happening behind the scenes that we cannot yet see.
I hope that’s true.
Because if things continue down their current path, history may look back on this moment as one of the greatest missed opportunities of our time. A moment when the regime was on its knees. A moment when the Iranian people could finally see freedom on the horizon. A moment when the world was given a chance to remove one of the greatest sources of instability and terrorism in the Middle East.
And then walked away.
I am not yet ready to say that America has completely fumbled it.
Not yet.
But it is certainly beginning to look that way.
The good news is that the story isn’t over. The Iranian people hate this regime more than ever. The regime itself is weaker than it has been in 47 years. And Israel remains committed to confronting a threat that it understands better than almost anyone else.
There is still time to get this right.
There is still time to finish the job.
And there is still time for America to prove me (and millions of Iranians) wrong.
One way or another, the Iranian people will be free. Whether the international community chooses to help them or not.
Thank you for reading!